055月 2017




Multiple factors cause trade to pick up

In fact, import export trade data published last month showed that the first three quarters of the import and export data of foreign trade analysis has stabilized to the good momentum of the development of foreign trade, especially the new energy, accelerate the accumulation of foreign trade to further optimize the structure of signs. In the first three quarters of this year, according to the RMB, China’s import and export value of 17 trillion and 530 billion yuan, down 1.9% over the same period in 2015. Among them, the export of 10 trillion and 60 billion yuan, down 7 trillion and 470 billion; imports yuan, down 2.3%, a decline of 1.6% compared to the same period in 2015. Trade surplus of 2 trillion and 600 billion yuan, expanded 0.6%. However, from the data in October, the foreign trade data situation is still difficult to talk about warmer.

In addition to the changes in the global import export data of the above items, the 3 consecutive month to improve the foreign trade custom index also appeared”. October, China’s foreign trade export pilot index was 35.6, the end of the recovery momentum, slightly down 0.2 from the previous month. Among them, according to the network survey data show that China’s export managers index was 39.2, down 0.7; the new export orders index 39.5, down 0.8; managers confidence index 44.8, down 0.7; enterprise comprehensive cost index of 27.4, down 0.2.

The foreign trade analysis of China Merchants believe that October export trade data is better than the previous value, but again lower than market expectations, and PMI new export orders sub decline, with the base is not high, and the downturn in exports last month, the export situation is deteriorating, the fundamentals of the developed countries and some differentiation. “Specifically, Japan’s manufacturing PMI has picked up 5 consecutive months and return to the boom interval, the euro zone, UK manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level, the same, the United States before the three quarter GDP also reflects the economy has improved.” The analysis highlights that poor export may be associated with a strong return to the dollar in the second half, to emerging market demand, commodity prices and other currency denominated trade size compression related. In addition, the Korean custom data services growth rate fell from 5% to 18%, there is a certain negative impact.

Based on the situation at home and abroad, the CASS Institute of finance strategic foreign trade analysis and investment research department researcher Zhang Ning suggested that China should be “The Belt and Road” strategy as a guide, to enhance China’s equipment manufacturing industry “going out” level, while strengthening currency convertibility and the RMB internationalization process, improve the ability of capital, capital “go out”.

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