175月 2017




Situations of Import and Export Data In U.S.

According to custom data services analysis, back to the global economic situation, the United States, although the June farm payrolls data and non farm payrolls data in July eye-catching, were 29.2 and 25.5, but the overall trend is down. While manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI line although also had ups and downs, but still fell in July relative to June. Manufacturing fell from 53.2 to 52.6, non manufacturing also fell from the fall of 55.5 by 56.5. This means that the 52.9, compared to May manufacturing 51.3 and non manufacturing industry while the 6, July data are over, but the trend is still down.

The unemployment rate data in July 6, remains unchanged is 4.9, compared to 4.7 in May is still rising, but the initial jobless shipment data in July 30th, to 26.9, since July has also increased, Overall, although the American economy has improved compared to May, but the recovery trend is not obvious, the U.S. economy is far from strong to support the interest rate level, the recovery process of ups and downs, especially for the first time to apply for the July unemployment data rose sharply — estimation of the fed to raise interest rates aggressively is likely to damage the current U.S. economic recovery pace, it is expected that the recent increases in the United States is not possible, but also to the optimistic estimate of fourth quarter.

The outflow of hot money, because of the weak global import export data, and China economy can barely support, so in July 6th, the foreign trade analysis exchange and foreign exchange reserves are falling in billions of dollars, basically can see the hot money outflow velocity is suppressed, and the RMB devaluation rate of suspension. But the fundamental reason is the hot money to see the real estate field in the central core protection, and switch to real estate, to continue to make the real estate bubble, pushing up asset bubbles. The current macroeconomic in the central bank 1-6 months of continuous drainage of the case, barely maintain the growth of 6.5%-7%. But the price is to continue the flow of real estate, the real estate of the release within the foreseeable future, and objective to further improve the manpower cost and rent cost, inevitably caused a further blow to the real economy.

While the M2 growth rate is still 11.8%, although the speed seems not too big change, but on the base in the overall monetary 140-150 trillion large, equivalent to the monthly average in the monetary base 1 trillion and 300 billion and 1 trillion and 400 billion of net invested. That is, the central bank’s monthly initiative to scale water in 1 trillion and 300 billion to about 1 trillion and 400 billion. Therefore, the current trend of devaluation of the domestic currency still exists, and the specific large-scale devaluation depends on when the Fed raised interest rates, leading hot money to continue large-scale exodus. On the other hand, the trend of hollowing out domestic industry will become more and more obvious, the lack of core competitiveness and extensive entity enterprises are facing funding strand breaks and operating difficulties.

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